Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-02-01 73255.835767 77393.596554 81534.396369 85986.181743 90633.924576 95340.085675 100462.603090
2026-02-08 66474.741533 72773.919302 79256.650994 86417.719740 94097.049924 102075.644323 110982.521646
2026-02-15 61261.057330 68996.134420 77135.114899 86318.727427 96373.661169 107028.682734 119153.943152
2026-02-22 58118.893358 67017.660196 76554.259670 87503.696535 99695.863928 112822.619655 127991.531023
2026-03-01 55324.415740 65134.342374 75817.918341 88271.615420 102342.538333 117700.282711 135681.074325
2026-03-08 52429.398362 62916.534979 74507.222710 88206.015256 103889.212688 121217.944033 141745.033303
2026-03-15 50148.658420 61242.022047 73668.810309 88540.763180 105770.822516 125019.343652 148059.789075
2026-03-22 48825.104004 60575.563254 73898.834026 90023.354757 108903.556089 130202.185218 155932.431797
2026-03-29 47407.746390 59709.051057 73818.224638 91075.610625 111484.534427 134718.740771 163029.209505
2026-04-05 45935.534801 58697.110587 73496.270740 91781.133157 113610.426379 138676.735834 169467.212566
2026-04-12 44184.173687 57268.772315 72607.552397 91746.985479 114807.597865 141509.990674 174566.989721
2026-04-19 42653.519367 56043.177830 71902.436987 91877.617035 116155.485254 144489.567069 179824.400017
2026-04-26 41037.481348 54670.757207 70988.210177 91735.542594 117173.052461 147095.179376 184683.791578
2026-05-03 39894.681443 53845.941196 70708.904685 92340.322124 119078.652505 150761.877409 190832.784275
2026-05-10 38495.049873 52644.174071 69916.083226 92269.112167 120124.703498 153372.610353 195704.934982
2026-05-17 37816.828979 52331.889093 70208.317955 93527.568537 122798.209600 157961.295928 202998.264189
2026-05-24 36975.417259 51775.021870 70163.539742 94339.902338 124904.204147 161855.659080 209459.710453
2026-05-31 35783.094160 50719.864264 69448.389472 94271.022919 125882.719277 164349.081881 214199.185704
2026-06-07 34842.193599 49962.339484 69085.218483 94624.473301 127373.807129 167468.090551 219717.164721
2026-06-14 34476.018632 49950.427170 69672.079303 96189.392363 130400.460970 172509.579834 227652.455681
2026-06-21 33938.470466 49687.914397 69916.138022 97299.914600 132845.186374 176831.975548 234714.714333
2026-06-28 33276.325529 49234.153931 69890.302509 98044.430576 134813.368832 180558.573237 241047.369968
2026-07-05 32328.831548 48362.492706 69286.395282 98008.397156 135757.393062 182982.858759 245742.092222